20:30 Southwell (AW): Christmas Jumper Day Sunday 13th December Handicap Stakes – preview

The race in brief

A 6-runner all-weather Flat handicap over 1m3f, Class 5. The official going is Standard, and the all-weather surface should ride consistently.

What the facts say

• Emma's Letter (3yo, Ed Dunlop, OR 72, 9-8) – figures 1315, 23 days since its last run, Race DNA fit 56.
• Seacole (3yo, Ralph Beckett, OR 72, 9-8) – figures 2732, 20 days since its last run, Race DNA fit 46.
• Khepri (3yo, K. R. Burke, OR 61, 8-11) – figures 4488, 46 days since its last run.
• Captain Fox (3yo, Richard Hughes, OR 70, 9-6) – figures 5754, 18 days since its last run, Race DNA fit 50.
• Thankfully (3yo, K. R. Burke, OR 75, 9-11) – figures 8973, 30 days since its last run, Race DNA fit 38.

Our view

Best selection: Emma's Letter. Recent figures of 1315 – includes a recent win; 23 days since its last run, a sensible gap; trainer Ed Dunlop has had 73 winners from 671 runners in our recent records.

The case against: Handicap marks are meant to level the field.

Others to consider: Seacole and Khepri.

This is analysis to help you form your own view, not a tip or a guarantee. 18+. If you bet, only stake what you can afford to lose.

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