PaddockSense is analysis and advice, not tips. We explain why a horse might or might not suit a race so you can make your own call. Nothing here is a guarantee, and we never tell you what to stake.
Our best selection
For each race we preview, we score every runner on its own record: recent form figures (last season's figures, slightly discounted, when it hasn't run yet this season), official rating in non-handicaps (a big ratings gap counts for more), days since its last run (a long break isn't held against a top-rated or proven high-class horse), its Race DNA fit, and its trainer's and jockey's strike rates in our results archive.
We always name one best selection, with a short write-up giving the case for and the case against. Each pick is labelled:
- Strong case – the runner stands clear of the rest on our numbers (margin over the next best of more than 1). These count in our selections record.
- Close call – the race is tight on our numbers. We still name our best selection, but Close calls do not count in the record.
How Race DNA fit scores work
Every horse gets a Horse Passport built from its own race record: the ground, trip and courses where it has run well. We compare that passport with today's race and weigh four things:
- Going – how it has run on ground like today's (30%)
- Trip – how it has run over similar distances in the same type of racing (30%)
- Flat or Jumps record – how it has run in this type of racing overall (25%)
- Course – any form at the track (15%)
Horses with only a few relevant runs are pulled towards the average, so one good run doesn't make a big score. The draw isn't part of the score.
These combine into one fit score. 80+ is a Strong fit, 65–79 a Good fit, 50–64 a Mixed fit, and anything lower comes with questions to answer. A horse with too few runs shows "Not enough data yet" instead of a guessed score.
A fit score tells you how well the conditions suit the horse. It doesn't predict the result: class, fitness and the rest of the field still matter.
Our record
We log every Strong case pick with its outcome, winners and losers alike, in our selections record. Close calls are reviewed but not counted. After racing each evening we publish a short review of each race we previewed. Past results don't predict future ones.
Where the data comes from
Racecards and results come from licensed data from The Racing API. All analysis and opinion is our own.
Bet responsibly
You must be 18 or over to bet. If you do, set limits and only stake what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available from BeGambleAware.org on 0808 8020 133.